2010 Food Crisis

Crisis, never really cared for the term or idea, a Crisis is lack of life boats while the Titanic was sinking, a Crisis is running out of water in the middle of the Sahara.

That said, there is a confluence of events concerning the upcoming Food Market around the globe, mainly Argentina is suffering a drought and their Grain harvest will be far below what the world markets expected, add in a unusually cold winter in the US and an increasing hungry China and  perhaps Writer Decarbonel is onto something:

Food Crisis of 2010

"...The same USDA that is predicting record harvests is also declaring disaster areas across half the Midwest because of catastrophic crop losses! To eliminate any doubt that this might be an innocent mistake, the USDA is even predicting record soybean harvests in the same states (Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Alabama) where it has declared virtually all counties to have experienced 30 percent production losses. It isn’t rocket scientist to realize something is horribly wrong.

USDA motivated by fear of higher food prices

The USDA is terrorized by the implications of higher food prices for the US economy, most likely because it knows the immediate consequence of sharply higher food will be the collapse of the US Treasury market and the dollar, as desperate governments and central banks dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports. Fictitious USDA estimates should be seen as proof of the dire threat posed by higher food prices, as the USDA would not have turned its production estimates into a grotesque mockery of reality if it didn't believe the alternative to be apocalyptic....."

Decarbonnel also makes a great point here:

"..With one out of eight Americans on food stamps, foreign central banks are subsidizing US food consumption by funding the US government with their treasury purchases. Once the food crisis begins next year, they will be faced with the choice:

1) Continue subsidizing US food consumptions as triple digit food inflation ravages their economy and their people starve.
2) Dump their treasury holdings onto the market to rapidly appreciate their currencies, lowering the cost of food imports and preventing widespread domestic starvation...."

Hmm, I've been around a bit and have seen such predictions before, however 18% of adult workers in the US are on foodstamps including 1.1 million in Tennessee alone, so basically foreign banks are indeed paying, via buying Treasury instrument, to feed the masses in the US.

I have little doubt that the USDA is lying via statistics concerning Harvests in counties that have suffered 30% losses or greater in one crop, however the possibility also exists that additional crops were planted or different crops were planted which would magnify losses in any one crop.

Be that as it may, things are fuzzy, if one steps back and looks at the big picture, food prices are bound to rise in  2010 even more than they have since the Alpha Strategy was published, the only thing that can be said with this information is:

1. The Alpha Strategy is more valid than in the past

2. Something is cooking in the world food markets, though futures prices have not reflected that reality as of yet.

3. With Monetization by the Federal Reserve, including but not limited to purchasing Treasuries not sold at auction, and perhaps engaging in Stock Manipulation coupled with the possibility that there will be a Food Shortage means it is a good time to purchase those food items that will store the longest as well as being the most likely to rise in cost during 2010. 

Things like Canned Tuna for example, have risen 30% in prices since 2009, Rice would also be a safe bet (if one likes Rice),  I also think Coffee and Chocolate will have surprising rises in prices.

The thing about coffee is, it is the #2 Commodity traded in the world in terms of cash volume, as the dollar weakens the prices will rise..

Shadow Stats and real inflation numbers

New Year's day...eh...a somewhat bland holiday wherein I expect many are nursing hangovers at home and abroad, watch it lass, that is a bad place to have frost bite.

I find Shadowstats a great counterpoint to the "official" inflation numbers, .Gov has every reason to underreport actual inflation whilst proclaiming the recession as being "over", which is not quite the case to be sure, if anything we are seeing demographic specific effects of inflation. 

"Demographic inflation"?

Think of it this way, with the offical inflationary stats excluding food and fuel and the cost of increased laws and regulations, inflation hits some demographics of the economy much harder than others. 

A small business owner who now has to pay a slew of additional costs for emission controls, increased minimum wage taxes in the form of FICA and SS and Medicare, is hit much harder than say a Doctor's office who does not face the effects of that particular brand of .Gov inspired inflation.

Hmm a RedDawn remake?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWnKEOJw-Ok&NR=1&feature=fvwp

A nice collage of the original film, a remake?

Not sure about the quality that a remake may possess:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oIRF4cYQ8Y

Well not surprising, a Red Dawn Remake merely shows the lack of creativity in Hollyweird...that said, media that focuses people on the Cruddy life is Always a good thing, life is not   all Pan and Roses and Butterflies.

BTW..always drove me nutz, the Original Red Dawn featured Pat Swayze and Scott Thomas discussing "no  radio" when in fact the radio in Swayze's pickup would have worked just fine..

Post Christmas...get yourself into gear..efficiently

Christmas day has arrived, they always do, on the 25th of every December.

Plenty of gifts, food, comraderie etc and so forth, perhaps even lending a hand in doing dishes or taking out the torn remnants of wrapping paper..

Enough of that, now that Christmas has passed, it is time to regift oneself from the ghosts of Christmas, Birthdays and splurges past.

The average purchaser of electronics, be they Play Stations or Laptops or even a PDA uses maybe 10% of the capacities of those devices, typically what happens is the gadget is used for one, or maybe two things, everything else is just not bothered with, at the Last Cause that is unacceptable.

We are all about increasing capacity by using what we already own, for example:

-Old Gateway laptop, 1 Ghz processor, DVD player has morphed into a 15 inch media center that can watch sports events or shows online for little to no cost in preperation for dropping Satellite Service once the cheapy intro rate expires.

-Old Palm PDA the M500 series, found a kit online for less than 40 dollars that allows it to transform into a GPS unit.

-Bread Machine, no new tricks with that, merely a schedule and Jankesque committment to a schedule, fresh bread is quite a treat, the capacity is already there, why not use it twice a week to create preservative free, tastee bread?

-Found an old Fax for Computer program that should increase capacity if I need to send a fax.

-Reformatted some old 1 gb thumb drives and installed DSL linux

-Went through the book library and found some old titles that I have not read in years, as the saying goes "If you wish to  learn something new, read a book you already have read".

-Open Office installed on the media center Gateway to create spreadsheets for the Alpha Strategy purchases that need to be made, as well as synching the laptop with the old palm pilot for penny by penny budgeting purposes.

-Cheapy digital camera that can record film, plan on going through self defense techniques with a blade in order to see where improvement can be made, most cellphones already have digital cameras in them, it does make one wonder if the camera is still good even if the service is dropped.

-Blew the dust off of old workout equipment, if 2010 is as bad as I think it can be, it will be a great time to get back into top shape, from the old Nordic Tracks to some dumbells, that equipment still works just fine and it is a positive outlet for frustrating times.

And it beats watching Oprah and wallowing in self pity.

-Langauge Course, these are  real gem, picked them up for 5 dollars on sale at Office Max, 51 langauges, coupled with "The Quick and Dirty Guide to Learning Foreign Languages Fast" and by Spring basal competence in 5 different languages can be mastered rather easily.

A few examples of recycling older tech and items and making them useful again, if one has ever shopped at a thrift store and found similar items keep in mind the item is not useless, the former owner just was not creative enough to find a new use for them. 

Have a Merry Christmas, save your money, be cautious, but decisive when acting. 

 

Khazad! Khazad! Christmas is Upon You!!

That time of year is here...again...and the ads are bombarding the buying public...again..Christmas must be some diabolical plot by marketers to influence feelings and drive the Consumer into debt or they are..less than caring..

From "laptop for $199" to the lastest greatest digital gadegtry, "you" will buy something..."you" know it, surrender, pull out the Credit Card...do it! 

Insert Sam Kinnison voice over.

Christmas in and of itself is not particularly Scriptural, in fact a better case could be made for Consumation over Immaculate Conception, however it is a golden chance to reconnect with family and loved ones and just enjoy some good company and have a nice meal and exchange gifts preferrably that one created themselves, that is how Christmas began and perhaps should return to being.

And times are hard, if the cooking is done oneself it reduces costs, unless of course one's time is extremely valuable, and of course cook a bit more so there are leftovers that can be given out as take home dishes for those less fortunate guests who are going through it.

It should be pointed out that the best bargains are often found in the returned items section of the local store, and items that are over purchased at the local market will be marked down in early January, a good time to stock up on wrapping paper and perhaps food items.

Unemployment to persist at high levels

Sadly, mankind never learns the big lessons, Unemployment will remain high for years.

Hundreds of billions in "stimulus" monies won't change that TARP has merely consolidated banking power at taxpayer's expense and made the Federal Government partial owners of the new conglomerates.

So while people lose their jobs, and inflation (actual inflation not the lies the .Gov is peddling this week) rises robbing money from rich and poor alike, now there will be even less employment available moving forward under the twisted Keynsian Vision that is en vogue in Babylon on the Potamic.

With a warehousing strategy in place, the loss of a job can be dealt with, at least somewhat, the problem is the 90's and 2000's housing boom created millions of mortgage holders, but far fewer actual homeowners, a lost job can see an eviction from one's home making the warehouse a burden, however that is one of the risks in America on the Decline, there is no longer Certainty only Doubt and loss moving forwards.

A one time favorite Author of mine, Boston T Party mentioned in his great "Surviving Doomsday" that Americans really should live with the thought that if their income were cot in half, it would have no effect on their day to day lives.

What a great concept, along with the rebirth of the Nuclear Family, two ideas who would allow Americans in particular to get back on their feet as a whole without living in one's car for an extended period of time.

W

Supplement table fare, a good strategy

"...The National Sporting Goods Association forecasts that spending on hunting and firearms will rise $350 million this year, even as spending declines for nearly every other sport the group monitors.

For hunters, deer meat isn't free -- there's overhead, including a deer hunting license, ammunition, gas for the car -- but it's cheap.

"You've got your loin steaks and your hindquarter steaks," Weaver said, "and the rest ground up into sausage -- comes to about 70 cents a pound."

http://www.indystar.com/article/20091019/LOCAL/910190348/In+trying+times++hunters+go+after+deer+to+put+food+on+the+table

The writer does a good job of reminding the reader that hunting "gear" often times outstrips the savings in venison going on the table.

I also would think that if savings were  really what were being sought, the Huntsmen would go out in groups and dilute the costs among several people, gas, lunch, even baits, those costs add up.

And such supplemental meat should also include smaller game animals such as Rabbits and Squirrels and Ducks (though  Ducks tend to be a "rich man's game due to the high costs involved, not always but once the dogs and the blinds and the time are  added in, as well as the custom perrazi's, it would take a lifetime of hunting to recoup  the cash layouts.

Some Venison Sausage with Rich along with some homebrewed wine and homemade bread sounds like  a great meal indeed.