1 in 5 US Families could not purchase food in 2009

Well, here at the Last Cause we tend to look eskew on anti Hunger groups in the US as the dichotmy, Obeisity and Hunger is simply to large to reconcile.

However, this story caught the eyes:

"..Nationwide polling found 18.2 percent of households reported "food hardship" -- lacking money to buy enough food -- in 2009, according to the group. That is higher than the government's "food insecurity" rating of 14.6 percent of households, or 49 million people, for 2008.

Households with children had a "food hardship" rate of 24.1 percent for 2009 compared with 14.9 percent among households without children. Twenty states had rates of 20 percent or higher. Seven Southern states led the list..."

Food insecurity? They made that up, or the respondents did not understand the question, or perhaps did not know how to prepare simple foods, after all Children's palates have been subtly changed via massive amounts of Sugar in nearly every food product aimed at the pre 12 yr old market.

A decent larder/pantry/storage would see people through the hard times, yet it would not include the Sugary foods, but would not be bland and tasteless either.

Extending the life span of lithium batteries

"Aging of lithium-ion is an issue that is often ignored. A lithium-ion battery in use typically lasts between 2-3 years. The capacity loss manifests itself in increased internal resistance caused by oxidation. Eventually, the cell resistance reaches a point where the pack can no longer deliver the stored energy although the battery may still have ample charge. For this reason, an aged battery can be kept longer in applications that draw low current as opposed to a function that demands heavy loads. Increasing internal resistance with cycle life and age is typical for cobalt-based lithium-ion, a system that is used for cell phones, cameras and laptops because of high energy density. The lower energy dense manganese-based lithium-ion, also known as spinel, maintains the internal resistance through its life but loses capacity due to chemical decompositions. Spinel is primarily used for power tools"

A fascinating article, and timely.

There are few things more frustrating than reaching for the cordless power tool, that has had a battery on the charger and being met with a slow hum and 3 turns per second.

On the plus side, apparently Scott Brown's election in MA has stopped Healthcare Socialization in it's tracks, which on the whole is good, but the additional 1.9 Trillion Dollars in debt the Federal Govt is forced to authorize is not so good.

Sooner or later, that will start the inflationary spiral, when jobs are being lost at 400k per month, the US is about to face a double squeeze, rising prices and no jobs to be had to buy anything anyway. 

2010 Food Crisis

Crisis, never really cared for the term or idea, a Crisis is lack of life boats while the Titanic was sinking, a Crisis is running out of water in the middle of the Sahara.

That said, there is a confluence of events concerning the upcoming Food Market around the globe, mainly Argentina is suffering a drought and their Grain harvest will be far below what the world markets expected, add in a unusually cold winter in the US and an increasing hungry China and  perhaps Writer Decarbonel is onto something:

Food Crisis of 2010

"...The same USDA that is predicting record harvests is also declaring disaster areas across half the Midwest because of catastrophic crop losses! To eliminate any doubt that this might be an innocent mistake, the USDA is even predicting record soybean harvests in the same states (Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Alabama) where it has declared virtually all counties to have experienced 30 percent production losses. It isn’t rocket scientist to realize something is horribly wrong.

USDA motivated by fear of higher food prices

The USDA is terrorized by the implications of higher food prices for the US economy, most likely because it knows the immediate consequence of sharply higher food will be the collapse of the US Treasury market and the dollar, as desperate governments and central banks dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports. Fictitious USDA estimates should be seen as proof of the dire threat posed by higher food prices, as the USDA would not have turned its production estimates into a grotesque mockery of reality if it didn't believe the alternative to be apocalyptic....."

Decarbonnel also makes a great point here:

"..With one out of eight Americans on food stamps, foreign central banks are subsidizing US food consumption by funding the US government with their treasury purchases. Once the food crisis begins next year, they will be faced with the choice:

1) Continue subsidizing US food consumptions as triple digit food inflation ravages their economy and their people starve.
2) Dump their treasury holdings onto the market to rapidly appreciate their currencies, lowering the cost of food imports and preventing widespread domestic starvation...."

Hmm, I've been around a bit and have seen such predictions before, however 18% of adult workers in the US are on foodstamps including 1.1 million in Tennessee alone, so basically foreign banks are indeed paying, via buying Treasury instrument, to feed the masses in the US.

I have little doubt that the USDA is lying via statistics concerning Harvests in counties that have suffered 30% losses or greater in one crop, however the possibility also exists that additional crops were planted or different crops were planted which would magnify losses in any one crop.

Be that as it may, things are fuzzy, if one steps back and looks at the big picture, food prices are bound to rise in  2010 even more than they have since the Alpha Strategy was published, the only thing that can be said with this information is:

1. The Alpha Strategy is more valid than in the past

2. Something is cooking in the world food markets, though futures prices have not reflected that reality as of yet.

3. With Monetization by the Federal Reserve, including but not limited to purchasing Treasuries not sold at auction, and perhaps engaging in Stock Manipulation coupled with the possibility that there will be a Food Shortage means it is a good time to purchase those food items that will store the longest as well as being the most likely to rise in cost during 2010. 

Things like Canned Tuna for example, have risen 30% in prices since 2009, Rice would also be a safe bet (if one likes Rice),  I also think Coffee and Chocolate will have surprising rises in prices.

The thing about coffee is, it is the #2 Commodity traded in the world in terms of cash volume, as the dollar weakens the prices will rise..

Shadow Stats and real inflation numbers

New Year's day...eh...a somewhat bland holiday wherein I expect many are nursing hangovers at home and abroad, watch it lass, that is a bad place to have frost bite.

I find Shadowstats a great counterpoint to the "official" inflation numbers, .Gov has every reason to underreport actual inflation whilst proclaiming the recession as being "over", which is not quite the case to be sure, if anything we are seeing demographic specific effects of inflation. 

"Demographic inflation"?

Think of it this way, with the offical inflationary stats excluding food and fuel and the cost of increased laws and regulations, inflation hits some demographics of the economy much harder than others. 

A small business owner who now has to pay a slew of additional costs for emission controls, increased minimum wage taxes in the form of FICA and SS and Medicare, is hit much harder than say a Doctor's office who does not face the effects of that particular brand of .Gov inspired inflation.